Spatial Statistics: 

Ambria for Alderman Campaign Report

2023 Xiaochen Chen

Introduction

The report summarizes and evaluates the alderman campaign events and analyzes the neighborhood characteristics. Then, I prioritize the zones we should focus on. Because confidential data is involved, I only display the part of the neighborhood characteristics analysis (public data) on the web page.

Voters

The entire 11th Ward has 28,760 registered voters. Although voters' participation in general election and municipal election is not the same (turnout rate is 65% and 25%, respectively). From Chart we can be clearly seen that more and more voters are participating in voting, with general election and municipal election increasing by 18% and 8% respectively. Map shows the distribution of registered voters, voter turnout, and voter abstention in zones.

The high turnout zone means that the voters here are very active in politics. We should focus on areas where the turnout is high but we are not collecting many signatures. Here is a list of the top 10 zones to watch out for. Residents here may be familiar with the campaign process, know the role of alderman in the ward, and may even know some of the candidates. So when we canvassing, we can convey to them the core propositions of our campaign and how our propositions will affect their lives, so as to gain their resonance.

The high abstention zone means that there are many registered voters, but they are not really involved in the election process. I think these abstention voters are a very good opportunity to enrich our vote. Of course, how to mobilize their enthusiasm will be a very big problem. If they were easy to mobilize, they would have already participated in the election process. I believe this group is also one that other candidates often overlook. I highly suggest that we should go to high abstention zones for canvassing. This will have many benefits: educate them about alderman, understand the possible needs of this group, increase Ambria's exposure, meet more people (maybe volunteers who are familiar with the zone), etc. Usually, as long as the candidate who can gain the trust of this group, they will vote that candidate. 

Ethnic Distribution

Map shows the distribution of White, Black, Asian, and Latino groups in the 11th Ward. Among them, the Asian population is concentrated in zone 1, 2, 3, and 4. The Latino population is concentrated in zone 41, 42, and 43. When canvassing Asian and Latino zones, language assistance needs to be prepared in advance.

The Distribution of White Population 

The Distribution of Black Population 

The Distribution of Asian Population 

The Distribution of Latino Population 

Political Preference





Map shows the 11th Ward's preference for politics, all zones are more inclined to Democrats, the Democrat rate ranges from 68% to 87.9%. Map 9-13 shows 11th Ward support for some candidates in past campaigns.